IBJR: Between Tax Pressure and Illegal Expansion, the Challenge of Building a Sustainable Betting Market in Brazil

March 18 & 19, 2026 at the Hilton Buenos Aires Hotel & Convention Center

Within the framework of SAGSE South America 2026, taking place on March 18 and 19 at the Hilton Buenos Aires Hotel & Convention Center in Buenos Aires, the Instituto Brasileño de Juego Responsable (IBJR) stands out as one of the strongest voices advocating for the regulated market ecosystem. With more than half of the betting volume still in the hands of illegal operators and a landscape shaped by regulatory and tax tensions, the balance between revenue generation, competitiveness, and consumer protection is becoming increasingly fragile. In this interview, IBJR analyzes the main risks facing the industry, warns about the impact of excessive taxation, and outlines the key conditions needed to build a formal, secure, and truly sustainable market.

IBJR has taken a strong stance in defending the regulated market and combating illegal betting. In your view, what is currently the biggest threat to consolidating a formal, sustainable, and competitive ecosystem in Brazil?

The biggest threat today is the persistence and strengthening of a massive underground market, which still accounts for around 51% of the betting volume in Brazil, combined with regulatory and tax instability for those seeking to operate within the law.

The State has shown a clear “revenue-driven appetite,” resulting in dozens of proposals aimed at taxing licensed operators. When the government changes recently established rules and introduces measures such as Cide-Bets or abrupt increases in contributions, it creates legal uncertainty and raises the cost of operating legally, making clandestine platforms far more attractive to consumers.

Bettors will dangerously migrate to illegal sites that offer unrealistic odds precisely because they do not pay taxes or comply with protection rules. Therefore, the greatest threat is an environment where operating illegally becomes advantageous. To consolidate our ecosystem, the government’s focus must be on the financial, technological, and advertising strangulation of these clandestine operations.

In recent months, IBJR has also warned about the impact that excessive taxation may have on market channeling. What balance should Brazil strike to generate revenue and protect consumers without pushing users toward illegal operators?

The balance lies not only in increasing tax rates on the legal market, but also in expanding the tax base through formalization. Today, in addition to revenue-based contributions, the sector already bears PIS/COFINS, ISS, IRPJ, and CSLL. With additional taxes, alongside tax reform, this burden could become unfeasible.

International experience has already shown us what not to do: in the Netherlands, a tax increase led to a 25% drop in regulated sector revenues and a loss of €200 million in tax collection, as players migrated to the black market. In Colombia, similar measures caused online revenues to fall by more than 30%.

In Brazil, where tax losses from the illegal market are estimated at R$10.8 billion annually, the math is different: according to a study by LCA Consultoria, every 5 percentage points reduction in illegality and increased market formalization could generate approximately R$1 billion in additional annual revenue.

The right balance is to maintain a competitive tax burden that keeps bettors within the safe, regulated environment, while using the full force of the State to combat those operating outside the law.

The future of the sector depends not only on licensing, but also on responsible gaming and player trust. What should the industry do today to prove that the regulated market is not only profitable, but truly responsible?

The industry must reinforce that regulation is our primary and only line of defense against compulsive gambling and fraud. To demonstrate responsibility, we must ensure the rigorous implementation of all required protection tools:

• Zero tolerance in access and identification: Require full registration with facial recognition and identity verification (KYC) across all platforms using the .bet.br domain, effectively preventing fraud and underage access.

• Strict financial control: Fully comply with the prohibition on credit card use, accepting only Pix, bank transfers (TED), and debit payments to prevent player indebtedness.

• Social protection and integrity: Clearly communicate that our activity is paid entertainment, never a source of income or investment. Additionally, we must maintain unrestricted international cooperation to combat match-fixing in sports.

We also need to demonstrate that we are responsible and that our positive impact is real: a sector that operates with transparency, supports approximately 15,000 high-quality formal jobs, and drives the economy in an ethical and fully auditable way.